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Donald Trump鈥檚 first term as president saw some of the  seen in the U.S. in more than 50 years, from the 2017 Women鈥檚 March to the 2020 protests after George Floyd鈥檚 murder. Things feel different this time around. Critics seem quieter. Some point to . But there鈥檚 also a sense that were ultimately futile. This has contributed to .

As noted听not long ago, Trump 鈥渉ad not appeared to be swayed by protests, petitions, hashtag campaigns or other tools of mass dissent.鈥澨�听听these days. But what if it鈥檚 wrong?

As , I study how our narratives about the past shape our actions in the present. In this case, it鈥檚 particularly important to get the history right. In fact, popular resistance in Trump鈥檚 first term accomplished more than many observers realize; it鈥檚 just that most wins happened outside the spotlight.

In my view, the most visible tactics鈥攑etitions, hashtags, occasional marches in Washington鈥攈ad less impact than the quieter work of organizing in communities and workplaces. Understanding when movements succeeded during Trump鈥檚 first term is important for identifying how activists can effectively oppose Trump policy in his second administration.

Quiet Victories of the Sanctuary Movement

 has been a cornerstone of for more than a decade. Yet despite his early pledge to create a 鈥溾�� that would ,  only half as many people in his first term as Barack Obama did in his first term. Progressive activists were a key reason.

By combining decentralized organizing and听听, they successfully pushed听听and to adopt sanctuary laws that limited cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

When听听thousands of cities and dozens of states, he found that a specific type of sanctuary law that activists supported鈥攂arring local jails and prisons from active cooperation with ICE鈥攕uccessfully reduced ICE arrests. A 听confirmed this finding. Notably, Hausman also found that sanctuary policies had 鈥渘o detectable effect on crime rates,鈥� contrary to what many听.

Another important influence on state and local officials was employers鈥� resistance to mass deportation. The E-Verify system requiring employers to verify workers鈥� legal status went , since businesses quietly objected to it. As this example suggests, popular resistance to Trump鈥檚 agenda was most effective when it exploited tensions between the administration and capitalists.

The 鈥楻ising Tide鈥� Against Fossil Fuels

In his effort to prop up the fossil fuel industry, Trump in his first term withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, weakened or ,听and pushed other measures to obstruct the transition to green energy. Researchers projected that these policies would kill听听of people in just the United States by 2028, primarily from exposure to air pollutants. Other studies estimated that the increased carbon pollution would contribute to听听of听, and untold other suffering, by century鈥檚 end.

That鈥檚 not the whole story, though. was partly thwarted by a combination of environmental activism and market forces. His failure to was especially stark. faster during Trump鈥檚 first term than during any four-year period in any country, ever. Some of the same coal barons who  in 2016 soon .

The most obvious reasons for coal鈥檚 decline were the U.S. natural gas boom and the falling cost of renewable energy. But its decline was hastened by the  that protested coal projects, filed , and  to disinvest from the sector. The presence of strong local movements may help explain the  in coal鈥檚 fortunes.

Environmentalists also won some important battles against oil and gas pipelines, power plants, and drilling projects. In a听, organizers defeated polluters through a combination of litigation, civil disobedience, and other protests, and by pressuring banks, insurers, and big investors.

In 2018, one pipeline CEO lamented the 鈥�, litigation, and vandalism鈥� facing his industry, saying 鈥渢he level of intensity has ramped up,鈥� with 鈥渕ore opponents鈥� who are 鈥渂etter organized.鈥�

Green energy also expanded much faster than Trump and his allies would have liked, albeit  to avert ecological collapse. The U.S.  more in Trump鈥檚 first term than under any other president, while  more than doubled. Research shows that this progress was due in part to  , particularly at the state and local levels.

As with immigration, Trump鈥檚 energy agenda divided both political and business elites. Some 听to keep their money in the sector, and some even听.听听and听听didn鈥檛 always share Trump鈥檚 commitment to propping up fossil fuels. These tensions between the White House and business leaders created openings that climate activists could exploit.

Worker Victories in Unlikely Places

Despite  as a man of the people, his policies hurt workers in numerous ways鈥攆rom his attack on  to his , which accelerated .

Nonetheless, workers鈥� direct action on the job won meaningful victories. For example, educators across the country organized dozens of major strikes for听,听,听and even听. Workers in hotels, supermarkets, and other听听also walked out. Ultimately,听more in 2018 than in any year since 1986.

This happened not just in progressive strongholds but听听like West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kentucky. At least听听defied state laws denying workers the right to strike.

听gains for workers, the strike wave apparently also听 at election time by increasing political awareness and voter mobilization. The indirect impact on elections is a听听of labor militancy and听.

Quiet acts of worker defiance also constrained Trump. The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic featured widespread resistance to policies that raised the , particularly the lack of mask mandates. Safety-conscious workers frequently disobeyed their employers, in ways . Many customers steered clear of businesses where people were unmasked. These disruptions, and fears they might escalate,  for mask mandates.

This resistance surely . With more coordination, it might have  in how  responded to the virus. Labor momentum could continue into Trump鈥檚 second term. Low unemployment, strong , and  offer .

Beyond Marches

Progressive movements have no direct influence over Republicans in Washington. However, they have more potential influence over businesses, lower courts, regulators, and state and local politicians. Of these targets, business ultimately has the most power.

Business will usually be able to  if its profits are threatened. Trump and Elon Musk may be able to dismantle much of the federal government and , but it鈥檚 much harder for them to ignore major economic disruption.

While big marches can raise public consciousness and help activists connect, by themselves they will not block Trump and Musk. For that, the movement will need more disruptive forms of pressure. Building the capacity for that disruption will require sustained organizing in workplaces and communities.

This article was originally published by . It has been published here with permission. 

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Kevin A. Young Ph.D., teaches history at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. His most recent book is Abolishing Fossil Fuels: Lessons from Movements That Won (PM Press, 2024). His other books include Blood of the Earth: Resource Nationalism, Revolution, and Empire in Bolivia (2017), Making the Revolution: Histories of the Latin American Left (editor, 2019), Levers of Power: How the 1% Rules and What the 99% Can Do About It (coauthor, 2020), and Trump and the Deeper Crisis (coeditor, 2023).

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